Cherokee Bank and the Cherokee Ledger News co-hosted a program on Thursday, January 27, 2011 with Michael Carnathan of the Atlanta Regional Commission as the guest speaker. Here are my notes from the event…
Quick Look
- 2000 to 2010 will be known as a Lost decade
- The Great Recession has ended, statistically speaking. Metro Atlanta (which includes Cherokee County) is in the Recovery Phase.
Population
- Metro Atlanta was #2 in nation in Metro growth 1.2MM , behind Dallas for last decade
- Where are these people who move to Cherokee coming from? Florida, California, and New York (mostly)
- Most local moves to Cherokee County are from Cobb and Fulton counties
- Cherokee’s Population is getting older! Ranks #1 in 65+ growth rate of 10 county area for Metro Atlanta.
- Atlanta will be the size of Chicago in 2040 (approximate 1MM per decade). Which is about the same rate of population growth we’ve had for the past 30 years. Averaging approx. 100,000 new people per year. A lot of which is net child birth vs death rate. Some of which is migration trends.
- The Population Forecast for Cherokee County is to double in size over the next 30 years. What took over a hundred years to reach today’s population will double in the next thirty.
Cherokee’s population today:207,388
Cherokee’s population in 2040: 402,082
This is a HUGE growth rate. Most of this growth will occur in the eastern and southern part of the county.
Jobs
- Atlanta has lost 8% of its jobs – approximately 200,000 The Construction industry has lost 34% or approximately 50,000 jobs.
- Jobs in Cherokee pay less today than they did in 2000.
- Atlanta has added lots of low paying jobs and lost middle and high paying jobs. Atlanta has the largest per capita income loss in 30 metro areas. Detroit is the next closest. Difference being that we gained population and Detroit lost population. People vote with their feet.
- Cherokee has fewer high paying jobs, making as the poster-child for a bedroom community. Cherokee needs more high paying jobs. Moreso than any other county in region. We export our workforce daily, more than any other county in Metro Atlanta.
- Healthcare and social assistance will be leading job growth industries and Real Estate and rental leasing will be #3 on this list going forward. (the population growth will have to live somewhere)
- Cherokee is expected to have 166% job growth in next 30 years. Tops in the Atlanta region.
- 21st century jobs = bio/tech/engineering
Housing
- The housing market appears to be stabilizing but from abysmal depths. There was uncertainty here, but it is seems to be generally accepted that we are bouncing along the bottom of the market. Where some months are better than others with no real long-term trend identified yet.
- 20% decline is housing prices in Metro Atlanta. Home prices are spiky (up and down).
National Buzz about Metro Atlanta
#1 entrepreneurial rate
#1 most recession proof city for retirement
#1 America’s most wired city
#2 For lowest cost of doing business
#4 number of Fortune 500 companies
#6 in Uhauls top destination cities, was #1 in 2008
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